{"id":1810,"date":"2026-06-28T17:39:44","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T12:39:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fintech.tsue.uz\/?p=1810"},"modified":"2026-07-02T17:41:04","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T12:41:04","slug":"ozbekiston-bank-tizimida-uzoq-muddatli-moliyalashtirishning-tarkibiy-nomutanosibligi-va-ssenariyli-erta-ogohlantirish-chegaralari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fintech.tsue.uz\/?p=1810","title":{"rendered":"O\u2018ZBEKISTON BANK TIZIMIDA UZOQ MUDDATLI MOLIYALASHTIRISHNING TARKIBIY NOMUTANOSIBLIGI VA SSENARIYLI ERTA OGOHLANTIRISH CHEGARALARI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Sulaymanov Akrom Isamiddinovich<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>G.V. Plexanov nomidagi<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Rossiya iqtisodiyot universitetining<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Toshkent filiali mustaqil izlanuvchisi<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u00abMikrokreditbank\u00bb ATB Toshkent shahar<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>bosh boshqarmasi boshlig\u2018i<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a><em>E-mail:Info@reu.uz<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>ORCID:0009-0000-5397-2506<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Annotatsiya.<\/em><\/strong><em> Maqolada O\u2018zbekiston bank tizimida uzoq muddatli kreditlar hajmi bilan ularni barqaror moliyalashtiruvchi manbalar o\u2018rtasidagi tarkibiy nomutanosiblik baholanib, 2027\u20132030-yillar uchun bazaviy, optimistik va stress ssenariylari asosida erta ogohlantirish chegaralari ishlab chiqilgan. Tadqiqotning boshlang\u2018ich bazasi sifatida 2026-yil 1-yanvar holatidagi rasmiy bank ko\u2018rsatkichlari hamda 2018\u20132025-yillardagi dinamik qatorlardan foydalanildi. Rekursiv ssenariy hisob-kitoblari majburiyatlar, uzoq muddatli moliyalashtirish, kredit portfeli va uzoq muddatli kreditlar trayektoriyalarini, shuningdek sof foiz marjasi, aktivlar rentabelligi, kapital yetarliligi, sof barqaror moliyalashtirish koeffitsiyenti, muammoli kreditlar va qayta moliyalashtirish xavfini o\u2018zaro bog\u2018liq holda baholash imkonini berdi. Hisob-kitoblarga ko\u2018ra, 2030-yilda uzoq muddatli moliyalashtirish hajmi bazaviy ssenariyda 445,3 trln so\u2018mga, optimistik ssenariyda 605,5 trln so\u2018mga yetishi mumkin. Stress ssenariysida 2029-yilda NSFR 98 foizgacha pasayishi, muammoli kreditlar 7 foizga ko\u2018tarilishi va resurslarning to\u2018liq qiymati 20 foizgacha oshishi mumkin. Maqolaning ilmiy yangiligi bank tayyorligi indeksi yoki moliyalashtirish tarkibini optimallashtirishdan farqli ravishda tizim darajasidagi \u201cyashil\u2013sariq\u2013qizil\u201d erta ogohlantirish konturini taklif etishdan iborat. Ushbu kontur Markaziy bank, tijorat banklari va bozor infratuzilmasi institutlari uchun choraklik monitoring va tiklanish rejasini ishga tushirish mezonlarini belgilaydi.<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Kalit so\u2018zlar: <\/em><\/strong><em>uzoq muddatli moliyalashtirish, tarkibiy nomutanosiblik, ssenariy prognozi, stress-test, NSFR, qayta moliyalashtirish xavfi, valyuta xavfi, muammoli kreditlar, erta ogohlantirish chegaralari.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u0421\u0422\u0420\u0423\u041a\u0422\u0423\u0420\u041d\u041e\u0415 \u0423\u041b\u0423\u0427\u0428\u0415\u041d\u0418\u0415 \u0414\u041e\u041b\u0413\u041e\u0421\u0420\u041e\u0427\u041d\u041e\u0413\u041e \u0424\u0418\u041d\u0410\u041d\u0421\u0418\u0420\u041e\u0412\u0410\u041d\u0418\u042f \u0412 \u0411\u0410\u041d\u041a\u041e\u0412\u0421\u041a\u041e\u0419 \u0421\u0418\u0421\u0422\u0415\u041c\u0415 \u0423\u0417\u0411\u0415\u041a\u0418\u0421\u0422\u0410\u041d\u0410 \u0418 \u041f\u0420\u0415\u0414\u0415\u041b\u042b 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\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430:<\/em><\/strong><em> \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0433\u043e\u0441\u0440\u043e\u0447\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435, \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0434\u0438\u0441\u0431\u0430\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0441, \u0441\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437, \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0441-\u0442\u0435\u0441\u0442, NSFR, \u0440\u0438\u0441\u043a \u0440\u0435\u0444\u0438\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f, \u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u0438\u0441\u043a, \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043a\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u0442\u044b, \u043f\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0440\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0435\u0433\u043e \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0443\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f.<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>STRUCTURAL IMBALANCE AND SCENARIO-BASED EARLY-WARNING THRESHOLDS FOR LONG-TERM FUNDING IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sulaymanov Akrom Isamiddinovich<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<em>Independent Researcher<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Tashkent Branch of Plekhanov<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>&nbsp;Russian University of Economics<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Head of the Tashkent City Main<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Department of JSCB \u201cMicrocreditbank\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>E-mail:Info@reu.uz<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>ORCID:0009-0000-5397-2506<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Abstract.<\/em><\/strong><em> The article evaluates the structural imbalance between long-term loans and stable funding sources in Uzbekistan\u2019s banking system and develops scenario-based early-warning thresholds for 2027\u20132030. The empirical baseline combines official banking indicators as of 1 January 2026 with dynamic evidence for 2018\u20132025. A recursive scenario framework is used to project liabilities, long-term funding, total loans and long-term loans, while jointly tracing net interest margin, return on assets, capital adequacy, the net stable funding ratio, non-performing loans and refinancing risk. The results indicate that long-term funding may reach UZS 445.3 trillion under the baseline scenario and UZS 605.5 trillion under the optimistic scenario by 2030. Under the stress scenario, the NSFR may fall to 98 percent in 2029, the NPL ratio may rise to 7 percent and the full hedged cost of funding may approach 20 percent. The contribution of the article differs from bank-readiness indices, institutional funding frameworks and funding-structure optimization. It proposes a system-level green\u2013amber\u2013red early-warning contour linking funding share, average maturity, full cost, foreign-currency exposure, NSFR, NPLs and refinancing risk to predefined management responses. The proposed framework can support quarterly supervisory monitoring, bank asset-liability committees and recovery planning.<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Keywords: <\/em><\/strong><em>long-term funding, structural imbalance, scenario forecasting, stress testing, NSFR, refinancing risk, foreign-exchange risk, non-performing loans, early-warning thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/fintech.tsue.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Sulaymanov-Akrom-Isamiddinovich.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Sulaymanov Akrom Isamiddinovich.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-29dad279-9ed4-4669-b1f8-dc10f173a6f8\" href=\"https:\/\/fintech.tsue.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Sulaymanov-Akrom-Isamiddinovich.pdf\">Sulaymanov Akrom Isamiddinovich<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/fintech.tsue.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Sulaymanov-Akrom-Isamiddinovich.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-29dad279-9ed4-4669-b1f8-dc10f173a6f8\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Foydalanilgan adabiyotlar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Information on major indicators of commercial banks as of January 1, 2026. Tashkent, 2026. URL: https:\/\/cbu.uz\/en\/statistics\/bankstats\/3326280\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2026 and 2027\u20132028. Tashkent, 2026. URL: https:\/\/cbu.uz\/en\/monetary-policy\/publications\/trend\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3. President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. New finance and digital technology initiatives presented. 25 March 2026. URL: https:\/\/president.uz\/en\/lists\/view\/9048<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4. O\u2018zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2026-yil 30-martdagi PF\u201348-son \u00abToshkent xalqaro moliya markazini tashkil etish to\u2018g\u2018risida\u00bbgi Farmoni. URL: https:\/\/lex.uz\/ru\/docs\/8103325<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5. O\u2018zbekiston Respublikasining 2026-yil 27-martdagi O\u2018RQ\u20131126-son Qonuni. Islom bank faoliyatini joriy etishga qaratilgan ayrim qonun hujjatlariga o\u2018zgartirish va qo\u2018shimchalar kiritish to\u2018g\u2018risida. URL: https:\/\/lex.uz\/docs\/8109715<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>6. International Monetary Fund. Republic of Uzbekistan: Financial Sector Assessment Program &#8211; Financial System Stability Assessment. IMF Staff Country Report No. 2025\/145. Washington, DC, 2025. DOI: 10.5089\/9798229015103.002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>7. International Monetary Fund. Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report &#8211; Macro Stress Testing of the Uzbek Banking Sector. Technical Assistance Report No. 2025\/032. Washington, DC, 2025. DOI: 10.5089\/9798229006361.019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>8. M\u00fcller C., Ossandon Busch M., Sarmiento M., Pinzon-Puerto F. Fragile wholesale deposits, liquidity risk, and banks\u2019 maturity transformation. BIS Working Papers. 2025. No. 1263. 51 p. URL: https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publ\/work1263.htm<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>9. Kladakis G., Chen L., Bellos S.K. Wholesale funding and liquidity creation. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting. 2022. Vol. 59. P. 1453\u20131499. DOI: 10.1007\/s11156-022-01081-9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>10. Fudulache A.-E., Goetz M.R. Long-term deposit funding and demand for central bank funds: Evidence from targeted longer-term refinancing operations. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper. 2023. No. 12\/2023. 59 p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>11. Cappelletti G., Marqu\u00e9s-Ib\u00e1\u00f1ez D., Reghezza A., Salleo C. As interest rates surge: Flighty deposits and lending. ECB Working Paper Series. 2024. No. 2923. 55 p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>12. Khalifeh I., Benhmad F., El Moussawi C., Tarazi A. Net Stable Funding Ratio: Implication for bank stability in Europe. Global Finance Journal. 2025. Vol. 67. Article 101144. DOI: 10.1016\/j.gfj.2025.101144.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>13. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Report on the 2023 Banking Turmoil. Basel: Bank for International Settlements, 2023. URL: https:\/\/www.bis.org\/bcbs\/publ\/d555.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>14. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Financial Sector Strategy 2026\u201330. London: EBRD, 2025. URL: https:\/\/www.ebrd.com\/content\/dam\/ebrd_dxp\/assets\/pdfs\/strategies-and-policies\/financial-sector-strategy\/financial-sector-strategy-2026-2030.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>15. Isakov O. Impact of loan to deposit ratio on the performance of commercial banks in Uzbekistan. Economics and Innovative Technologies. 2023. Vol. 11. No. 1. P. 45\u201352. DOI: 10.55439\/EIT\/vol11_iss1\/a5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>16. Ruziyev B.S. Tijorat banklarida likvidlilik muammolari va uning yechimlari. Economics and Innovative Technologies. 2025. Vol. 13. No. 5. B. 18\u201323. DOI: 10.55439\/EIT\/vol13_iss5\/711.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>17. World Bank. Boosting SME Finance for Growth: The Case for More Effective Support Policies. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>18. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Financing development: External flows of financial capital to developing countries and their cost. Geneva: United Nations, 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sulaymanov Akrom Isamiddinovich G.V. Plexanov nomidagi Rossiya iqtisodiyot universitetining Toshkent filiali mustaqil izlanuvchisi \u00abMikrokreditbank\u00bb ATB Toshkent shahar bosh boshqarmasi boshlig\u2018i E-mail:Info@reu.uz ORCID:0009-0000-5397-2506 Annotatsiya. Maqolada O\u2018zbekiston bank tizimida uzoq muddatli kreditlar hajmi bilan ularni&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2026-yil-3-son"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>O\u2018ZBEKISTON BANK TIZIMIDA UZOQ MUDDATLI MOLIYALASHTIRISHNING TARKIBIY NOMUTANOSIBLIGI VA SSENARIYLI ERTA OGOHLANTIRISH CHEGARALARI - \u201cMoliyaviy texnologiyalar\u201d ilmiy elektron jurnali<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fintech.tsue.uz\/?p=1810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"uz_UZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"O\u2018ZBEKISTON BANK TIZIMIDA UZOQ MUDDATLI MOLIYALASHTIRISHNING TARKIBIY NOMUTANOSIBLIGI VA SSENARIYLI ERTA OGOHLANTIRISH CHEGARALARI - \u201cMoliyaviy texnologiyalar\u201d ilmiy elektron jurnali\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sulaymanov Akrom Isamiddinovich G.V. Plexanov nomidagi Rossiya iqtisodiyot universitetining Toshkent filiali mustaqil izlanuvchisi \u00abMikrokreditbank\u00bb ATB Toshkent shahar bosh boshqarmasi boshlig\u2018i E-mail:Info@reu.uz ORCID:0009-0000-5397-2506 Annotatsiya. 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\u201cMoliyaviy texnologiyalar\u201d ilmiy elektron jurnali","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/fintech.tsue.uz\/?p=1810","og_locale":"uz_UZ","og_type":"article","og_title":"O\u2018ZBEKISTON BANK TIZIMIDA UZOQ MUDDATLI MOLIYALASHTIRISHNING TARKIBIY NOMUTANOSIBLIGI VA SSENARIYLI ERTA OGOHLANTIRISH CHEGARALARI - \u201cMoliyaviy texnologiyalar\u201d ilmiy elektron jurnali","og_description":"Sulaymanov Akrom Isamiddinovich G.V. Plexanov nomidagi Rossiya iqtisodiyot universitetining Toshkent filiali mustaqil izlanuvchisi \u00abMikrokreditbank\u00bb ATB Toshkent shahar bosh boshqarmasi boshlig\u2018i E-mail:Info@reu.uz ORCID:0009-0000-5397-2506 Annotatsiya. 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