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O‘ZBEKISTON BANK-MOLIYA TIZIMIDA KAPITAL OQIMLARINI BARQARORLASHTIRISHNING INSTITUTSIONAL ASOSLARI

by · Aprel 30, 2026

Mamadjanov Farrux Gayratovich

Namangan davlat texnika universiteti

«Iqtisodiyot» kafedrasi

mustaqil izlanuvchisi

Annotasiya. Maqolada O‘zbekiston bank-moliya tizimida kapital oqimlarini barqarorlashtirishning institutsional asoslari ilmiy jihatdan o‘rganiladi. Tadqiqot maqsadi-mamlakatning moliyaviy sektori liberalizatsiyasi sharoitida kapital harakatlarini tartibga soluvchi institutsional mexanizmlarning samaradorligini baholash va takomillashtirish yo‘llarini aniqlashdan iborat. Metodologik jihatdan tadqiqot OLS regressiya tahlili, panel ma’lumotlar usuli (Fixed Effects va Random Effects), korrelyatsion tahlil, Hausman va Chow testlari, shuningdek dinamik qatorlar tahlili va komparativ institutsional tahlilni qamrab oladi. 2010–2025 yillar uchun Markaziy bank, Davlat statistika qo‘mitasi, IMF, World Development Indicators va BIS ma’lumot bazalari asosida empirik tadqiqot amalga oshirilgan. Asosiy natijalar shuni ko‘rsatadiki: bank tizimi likvidligi (β=0.412, p<0.01), foiz stavkasi (β=-0.318, p<0.01) va institutsional sifat ko‘rsatkichi (β=0.487, p<0.001) kapital oqimlari barqarorligiga eng muhim statistik ta’sir ko‘rsatuvchi omillar hisoblanadi; umumiy model 78,4% tushuntirish kuchiga ega (R²=0.784). Ilmiy yangilik sifatida O‘zbekiston bank-moliya tizimi uchun kapital oqimlari barqarorligini ta’minlashning institutsional-mexanizm modeli (IMM-CFS) ishlab chiqilgan bo‘lib, u makroprudensial regulyatsiya, valyuta siyosati va institutsional sifat o‘rtasidagi o‘zaro bog‘liqlikni tizimli ravishda tahlil qiladi. Amaliy ahamiyati jihatidan tadqiqot Markaziy bank va moliyaviy nazorat organlari uchun 10 ta aniq siyosat tavsiyasini taqdim etadi.

Kalit so‘zlar: kapital oqimlari; bank tizimi; institutsional mexanizmlar; moliyaviy barqarorlik; monetar siyosat; makroprudensial regulyatsiya; O‘zbekiston; bank islohotlari; moliyaviy vositachilik; valyuta kursi.

INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS FOR STABILIZING CAPITAL FLOWS IN THE BANKING AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM OF UZBEKISTAN

Mamadzhanov Farrukh Gayratovich

Namangan State Technical University

Department of Economics

independent researcher

Abstract. The article scientifically examines the institutional foundations for stabilizing capital flows within Uzbekistan’s banking and financial system. The aim of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms regulating capital movements in the context of the liberalization of the country’s financial sector and to identify ways to improve them. Methodologically, the study included OLS regression analysis, panel data method (Fixed Effects and Random Effects), correlation analysis, Hausman and Chow tests, as well as dynamic series analysis and comparative institutional analysis. An empirical study was conducted based on the databases of the Central Bank, the State Committee on Statistics, the IMF, World Development Indicators, and the BIS for the period 2010–2025. The main results show that: liquidity of the banking system (β=0.412, p<0.01), interest rate (β=-0.318, p<0.01) and institutional quality indicator (β=0.487, p<0.001) are the most important statistical factors affecting the stability of capital flows; the general model has an explanatory power of 78.4% (R2=0.784). As a scientific innovation, an institutional mechanism model (IMM-CFS) for ensuring the stability of capital flows for the banking and financial system of Uzbekistan has been developed, which systematically analyzes the relationship between macroprudential regulation, monetary policy, and institutional quality. In terms of practical significance, the study provides 10 specific policy recommendations for the Central Bank and financial regulatory authorities.

Key words: capital flows; banking system; institutional mechanisms; financial stability; monetary policy; macroprudential regulation; Uzbekistan; banking reforms; financial intermediation; exchange rate.

ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНЫЕ ОСНОВЫ СТАБИЛИЗАЦИИ ПОТОКОВ КАПИТАЛА В БАНКОВСКО-ФИНАНСОВОЙ СИСТЕМЕ УЗБЕКИСТАНА

Мамаджанов Фаррух Гайратович

Наманганский государственный

 технический университет

Кафедра «Экономика»

самостоятельный исследователь

Аннотация. В статье научно рассматриваются институциональные основы стабилизации потоков капитала в банковско-финансовой системе Узбекистана. Целью исследования является оценка эффективности институциональных механизмов регулирования движения капитала в условиях либерализации финансового сектора страны и определение путей их совершенствования. Методологически исследование охватывает OLS регрессионный анализ, метод панельных данных (Fixed Effects и Random Effects), корреляционный анализ, тесты Хаусмана и Чоу, а также анализ динамических рядов и сравнительный институциональный анализ. Эмпирическое исследование было проведено на основе баз данных Центрального банка, Государственного комитета по статистике, МВФ, World Development Indicators и BIS за 2010–2025 годы. Основные результаты показывают, что: ликвидность банковской системы (β=0.412, p<0.01), процентная ставка (β=-0.318, p<0.01) и показатель институционального качества (β=0.487, p<0.001) являются наиболее важными статистическими факторами, влияющими на устойчивость потоков капитала; общая модель имеет объяснительную силу 78,4% (R2=0.784). В качестве научной новизны разработана институционально-механистическая модель обеспечения стабильности потоков капитала (IMM-CFS) для банковско-финансовой системы Узбекистана, которая систематически анализирует взаимосвязь между макропруденциальным регулированием, валютной политикой и институциональным качеством. С точки зрения практической значимости исследование содержит 10 конкретных политических рекомендаций для Центрального банка и органов финансового контроля.

Ключевые слова: потоки капитала; банковская система; институциональные механизмы; финансовая стабильность; монетарная политика; макропруденциальное регулирование; Узбекистан; банковские реформы; финансовое посредничество; валютный курс.

Mamadjanov Farrux GayratovichDownload

Mamadjanov Farrux Gayratovich. (2026). O’ZBEKISTON BANK-MOLIYA TIZIMIDA KAPITAL OQIMLARINI BARQARORLASHTIRISHNING INSTITUTSIONAL ASOSLARI. «Moliyaviy texnologiyalar» ilmiy elektron jurnali, 5(2), 76. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23793790

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