WAYS TO IMPROVE SUSTAINABLE FINANCING MECHANISMS IN UZBEKISTAN: CAPITAL NEEDS, PILOT INSTRUMENTS AND SCENARIO-BASED  PROJECTIONS TO 2030

Akhmedova Shokhistakhon

Project assistant,

Asian Development Bank Uzbekistan Resident Mission

Email: sakhmedova.contractor@adb.org

ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6930-2847

Abstract. This article proposes quantified measures to strengthen sustainable financing mechanisms in Uzbekistan through financing instruments, pilot projects and phased reforms. It estimates renewable-energy and grid-modernization investment needs at USD 10.1 billion for 2026–2030 and argues that stronger domestic financing mechanisms are essential to reduce currency risk and dependence on external capital. Two pilot instruments are developed: regional green bonds and sustainability-linked bonds for state-owned enterprises, supported by sector-specific performance indicators. A three-scenario forecast projects cumulative green, social, sustainability and sustainability-linked bond issuance of USD 3.25–13.3 billion, with the domestic market’s share increasing from approximately 14 to 37 percent. Sensitivity analysis identifies domestic-market development and banks’ international issuance growth as the principal drivers. Under the baseline scenario, subsidizing coupons on half of domestic issuance would cost approximately USD 54 million, alongside USD 4.7 billion in additional issuance relative to the inertial scenario. The article also proposes transition finance, sustainable sukuk, carbon-market mechanisms, digital instruments and blended finance, sequenced over 2026–2035 and supported by a formal risk assessment.

Key words: sustainable financing mechanisms, capital needs, municipal green bonds, sustainability-linked bonds, scenario forecasting, sensitivity analysis, coupon subsidy, transition finance, Uzbekistan.

O‘ZBEKISTONDA BARQAROR MOLIYALASHTIRISH MEXANIZMLARINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH YO‘LLARI: KAPITALGA EHTIYOJ, PILOT MOLIYAVIY VOSITALAR VA 2030-YILGACHA SSENARIY ASOSIDAGI PROGNOZLAR

Akhmedova Shokhistakhon

Osiyo taraqqiyot bankining

O‘zbekistondagi doimiy vakolatxonasi loyiha assistenti
E-mail: sakhmedova.contractor@adb.org
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6930-2847

Annotatsiya. Ushbu maqolada moliyaviy vositalar, pilot loyihalar va bosqichma-bosqich islohotlar asosida O‘zbekistonda barqaror moliyalashtirish mexanizmlarini mustahkamlashga qaratilgan miqdoriy asoslangan chora-tadbirlar taklif etilgan. Tadqiqotda 2026–2030-yillarda qayta tiklanuvchi energetika va elektr tarmoqlarini modernizatsiya qilish uchun zarur investitsiyalar hajmi 10,1 mlrd AQSh dollari miqdorida baholangan hamda valyuta xatarlarini va tashqi kapitalga qaramlikni kamaytirish uchun ichki moliyalashtirish mexanizmlarini rivojlantirish zarurligi asoslab berilgan. Ikki turdagi pilot moliyaviy vosita — hududiy yashil obligatsiyalar hamda davlat korxonalari uchun barqarorlik ko‘rsatkichlariga bog‘langan obligatsiyalar ishlab chiqilgan bo‘lib, ular tarmoq xususiyatlariga mos samaradorlik ko‘rsatkichlari bilan qo‘llab-quvvatlanadi. Uchta ssenariy asosidagi prognozga ko‘ra, yashil, ijtimoiy, barqarorlik va barqarorlik ko‘rsatkichlariga bog‘langan obligatsiyalarning jami emissiyasi 3,25 mlrd AQSh dollaridan 13,3 mlrd AQSh dollarigacha yetishi, ichki bozor ulushi esa taxminan 14 foizdan 37 foizgacha oshishi mumkin. Sezgirlik tahlili ichki bozorning rivojlanishi va banklarning xalqaro obligatsiyalar emissiyasi o‘sishini asosiy ta’sir etuvchi omillar sifatida aniqlaydi. Bazaviy ssenariy bo‘yicha ichki emissiyaning yarmi uchun kupon to‘lovlarini subsidiyalash xarajatlari taxminan 54 mln AQSh dollarini tashkil etishi, shu bilan birga inertsiya ssenariysiga nisbatan qo‘shimcha emissiya hajmi 4,7 mlrd AQSh dollariga yetishi mumkin. Maqolada, shuningdek, o‘tish davri moliyasi, barqaror sukuk, uglerod bozori mexanizmlari, raqamli moliyaviy vositalar va aralash moliyalashtirish mexanizmlarini 2026–2035-yillarda bosqichma-bosqich joriy etish hamda ularni rasmiy risklarni baholash tizimi bilan qo‘llab-quvvatlash taklif etilgan.

Kalit so‘zlar: barqaror moliyalashtirish mexanizmlari, kapitalga ehtiyoj, munitsipal yashil obligatsiyalar, barqarorlik ko‘rsatkichlariga bog‘langan obligatsiyalar, ssenariy asosida prognozlash, sezgirlik tahlili, kupon subsidiyasi, o‘tish davri moliyasi, O‘zbekiston.

ПУТИ СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЯ МЕХАНИЗМОВ УСТОЙЧИВОГО ФИНАНСИРОВАНИЯ В УЗБЕКИСТАНЕ: ПОТРЕБНОСТИ В КАПИТАЛЕ, ПИЛОТНЫЕ ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ И СЦЕНАРНЫЕ ПРОГНОЗЫ ДО 2030 ГОДА

Akhmedova Shokhistakhon

Ассистент проекта

Постоянного представительства Азиатского банка развития в Узбекистане
E-mail: sakhmedova.contractor@adb.org
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6930-2847

Аннотация. В статье предлагаются количественно обоснованные меры по укреплению механизмов устойчивого финансирования в Узбекистане посредством внедрения финансовых инструментов, пилотных проектов и поэтапных реформ. Потребность в инвестициях в возобновляемую энергетику и модернизацию электрических сетей на 2026–2030 годы оценивается в 10,1 млрд долларов США. Обосновывается необходимость развития внутренних механизмов финансирования для снижения валютных рисков и зависимости от внешнего капитала. Разработаны два пилотных инструмента: региональные зелёные облигации и облигации, привязанные к показателям устойчивого развития, для государственных предприятий, подкреплённые отраслевыми показателями эффективности. Прогнозирование по трём сценариям показывает, что совокупный объём выпуска зелёных, социальных, устойчивых и связанных с показателями устойчивого развития облигаций может составить от 3,25 до 13,3 млрд долларов США, при этом доля внутреннего рынка может увеличиться примерно с 14 до 37 процентов. Анализ чувствительности определяет развитие внутреннего рынка и рост международных выпусков облигаций банками в качестве основных факторов динамики. Согласно базовому сценарию, субсидирование купонных выплат по половине объёма внутренних выпусков потребует около 54 млн долларов США, одновременно обеспечивая дополнительный объём эмиссии в размере 4,7 млрд долларов США по сравнению с инерционным сценарием. В статье также предлагается поэтапное внедрение в 2026–2035 годах переходного финансирования, устойчивых сукук, механизмов углеродного рынка, цифровых финансовых инструментов и смешанного финансирования при их сопровождении формализованной системой оценки рисков.

Ключевые слова: механизмы устойчивого финансирования, потребность в капитале, муниципальные зелёные облигации, облигации, связанные с показателями устойчивого развития, сценарное прогнозирование, анализ чувствительности, субсидирование купонных выплат, переходное финансирование, Узбекистан.

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23142600

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