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INFLYATSION TARGETIRLASH SHAROITIDA MARKAZIY BANK VALYUTA INTERVENSIYALARI STRATEGIYASINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH MEXANIZMLARI

by · Sentabr 13, 2026

Saydullayev Nodirbek Narzullayevich

Toshkent Kimyo

 xalqaro universiteti

mustaqil tadqiqotchisi

Email: nsaydullayev@gmail.com

Annotatsiya. Ushbu tadqiqotda inflyatsion targetirlash sharoitida Markaziy bankning valyuta interventsiyalari strategiyasini takomillashtirishning nazariy-metodologik va amaliy mexanizmlari tadqiq etilgan. Rivojlanayotgan mamlakatlarda valyuta kursining ichki narxlarga yuqori o‘tish effekti, moliyaviy bozorlar chuqurligining pastligi va “suzishdan qo‘rqish” fenomeni interventsiyalarga ehtiyojni saqlab qolishi asoslangan. Diskretsion aralashuvlardan qoidalarga asoslangan shaffof interventsiyalar tizimiga o‘tish, bozor neytralligi va XVJning IPF yondashuvini qo‘llash imkoniyatlari tahlil qilingan. SVAR va EGARCH modellari asosida interventsiyalarning valyuta kursi volatilligi va inflyatsion kutilmalarga ta’siri baholangan. Natijalar asosida sterilizatsiyani optimallashtirish, axborot asimmetriyasini kamaytirish va pul-kredit siyosatining foiz kanalini mustahkamlash bo‘yicha tavsiyalar ishlab chiqilgan.

Kalit soʻzlar: inflyatsion targetirlash, valyuta interventsiyasi, suzuvchi valyuta kursi, o‘tish effekti (pass-through), sterilizatsiya, bozor neytralligi, volatillik, transmissiya mexanizmi, Integratsiyalashgan siyosat doirasi (IPF).

MECHANISMS FOR IMPROVING THE CENTRAL BANK’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION STRATEGY UNDER INFLATION TARGETING

Saydullayev Nodirbek Narzullayevich

Independent Researcher at

Kimyo International

University in Tashkent

Email: nsaydullayev@gmail.com

Abstract. This study examines the theoretical-methodological and practical mechanisms for refining the Central Bank’s foreign exchange intervention strategy within an inflation-targeting framework. It establishes that the need for interventions persists in developing countries due to the high pass-through effect of exchange rates on domestic prices, the limited depth of financial markets, and the «fear of floating» phenomenon. The study analyzes the transition from discretionary interventions to a transparent, rules-based intervention system, as well as the potential for applying market neutrality principles and the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) approach. Using SVAR and EGARCH models, the impact of interventions on exchange rate volatility and inflation expectations is assessed. Based on the findings, recommendations are developed to optimize sterilization, reduce information asymmetry, and strengthen the interest rate channel of monetary policy.

Key words: inflation targeting, foreign exchange intervention, flexible exchange rate, exchange rate pass-through, sterilization, market neutrality, exchange rate volatility, transmission mechanism, Integrated Policy Framework (IPF).

МЕХАНИЗМЫ УЛУЧШЕНИЯ СТРАТЕГИИ ВАЛЮТНЫХ ИНТЕРВЕНЦИЙ ЦЕНТРАЛЬНЫХ БАНКОВ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЦЕЛЕВОГО ЦЕЛЕОБРАЗОВАНИЯ ИНФЛЯЦИИ

Сайдуллаев Нодирбек Нарзуллаевич

Самостоятельный соискатель,

Международный университет Кимё в Ташкенте

Email: nsaydullayev@gmail.com

Аннотация. В данном исследовании рассматриваются теоретические, методологические и практические механизмы совершенствования стратегии валютных интервенций Центрального банка в условиях таргетирования инфляции. В основе исследования лежит тот факт, что высокая степень влияния обменного курса на внутренние цены в развивающихся странах, низкая глубина финансовых рынков и феномен «страха плавания» поддерживают необходимость интервенций. Анализируются возможности перехода от дискреционных интервенций к системе прозрачных интервенций, основанной на правилах, рыночной нейтральности и использовании подхода МВФ к инфляционному рынку. Влияние интервенций на волатильность обменного курса и инфляционные ожидания оценивается на основе моделей SVAR и EGARCH. На основе полученных результатов разработаны рекомендации по оптимизации стерилизации, снижению информационной асимметрии и укреплению процентного канала денежно-кредитной политики.

Ключевые слова: инфляционное таргетирование, валютные интервенции, плавающий валютный курс, эффект переноса (pass-through), стерилизация, нейтральность рынка, волатильность курса, трансмиссионный механизм, Интегрированная концепция политики (IPF).

17_Saydullayev Nodirbek NarzullayevichDownload

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22736051

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Citation:

Saydullayev Nodirbek Narzullayevich. (2026). INFLYATSION TARGETIRLASH SHAROITIDA MARKAZIY BANK VALYUTA INTERVENSIYALARI STRATEGIYASINI TAKOMILLASHTIRISH MEXANIZMLARI. «Moliyaviy texnologiyalar» ilmiy elektron jurnali, 5(5), 17. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22736051

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